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Home My WebLink About34 - NB-1 - Attachment 4 - 10/6/2015ATTACHMENT Costa Mesa General Plan Update Vehicle Traffic Forecasts Stantec Prepared for: City of Costa Mesa Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services Inc. September 25, 2015 Draft _21 e .Stantoc Costa Mesa General Plan Update Vehicle Traffic Forecasts September 25, 2015 Draft Prepared for: City of Costa Mesa Submitted by: Stantec Consulting Services Inc. 38 Technology Drive, Suite 100 Irvine, California 92618-5312 ,- 2 2 COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................1 2.0 CITYWIDE LAND USE AND TRIP GENERATION.................................................................1 3.0 EXISTING AND FUTURE TRAFFIC VOLUMES.....................................................................8 List of Tables Table 2-1 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Trip Generation Rates.................................................2 Table 2-2 Costa Mesa Citywide Land Use and Trip Generation Summary ..........................4 List of Figures Figure 2-1 ADT Trip Generation Difference (Current General Plan Buildout Versus ExistingConditions)......................................................................................................6 Figure 2-2 ADT Trip Generation Difference (Proposed General Plan Buildout Versus Current General Plan Buildout).................................................................................7 Figure 3-1 Existing ADT Volumes(000s)........................................................................................9 Figure 3-2 2035 Circulation System Improvements.................................................................10 Figure 3-3 2035 Current General Plan ADT Volumes(000s)...................................................I 1 Figure 3-4 2035 Proposed General Plan ADT Volumes (000s) ...............................................12 Figure 3-5 ADT Volume Difference (Current General Plan Buildout Versus Existing Conditions)..................................................................................................................13 Figure 3-6 ADT Volume Difference (Proposed General Plan Buildout Versus Current GeneralPlan Buildout)..............................................................................................14 4 Stantec v:\2013007190\report\rpt cmgp_vehicle_Imffic forecasfs_dmff20150925.docx -23- COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS 1.0 Introduction This report, prepared by Stantec Consulting Services Inc. (Stantec), summarizes the vehicle traffic data forecasts prepared as part of the City of Costa Mesa General Plan update. For the analysis, vehicle traffic generation estimates were calculated based on the existing land uses in the City as well as the land uses associated with buildout of the City's current General Plan and the proposed General Plan that is under consideration. The analysis also compares existing and future vehicle traffic volumes on the City's roadway system. Existing traffic volumes are based on observed traffic counts collected in 2012 and 2013 whereas future traffic volumes are based on buildout of the current and proposed General Plan were determined using the Costa Mesa Traffic Model (CMTM). The CMTM is derived from the Orange County Transportation Analysis Model, Version 3.4 (OCTAM 3.4), which is maintained by the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA). The CMTM has been certified by the OCTA as being consistent with the OCTAM regional model. 2.0 Citywide Land Use and Trip Generation As part of the Costa Mesa General Plan update process, an inventory of the existing land uses in the City of Costa Mesa was compiled and the future land uses associated with the buildout of the current and proposed General Plan were determined. Average daily vehicle (ADT) trip generation estimates based on the existing and future land uses were calculated using vehicle trip generation rates from various sources, primarily the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual (9th Edition). The trip generation rates are summarized in Table 2-1, and citywide existing and future (current and proposed General Plan) land use and ADT trip generation estimates are summarized in Table 2-2. Note that future land uses in Home Ranch under the current General Plan and in Sakioka Lot 2 under the current and propose General Plan are subject to the trip generation caps that have been established for those areas. Also note that the future trip generation growth assumed for Orange Coast College (OCC) is based on the recently adopted OCC Facilities Master Plan. As indicated in Table 2-2, the ADT generated under the current and proposed General Plan is estimated to increase by 20.2% and 24.3%, respectively, over the City's existing ADT trip generation level. The land use and trip generation information presented here was also applied in the CMTM traffic model to forecast future traffic volumes on the City's roadway system. For the traffic model, the land use is specified according to the model's traffic analysis zone (TAZ) system. Figure 2-1 illustrates the trip generation difference by CMTM TAZ between existing conditions and buildout of the current General Plan, and Figure 2-2 illustrates the trip generation difference between buildout of the current General Plan and the proposed General Plan. 1 v:\20]300]190\r9porl\rpt_cmgp_v.hide rrarfic forecasts droft20150925.docx COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS Table 2-1 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Trip Generation Rates Land Use Catesiory Units Source ADTTri Rate I. Low Density Residential DU ITE Category 210 Single Family Detached 9,52 2. Medium Density Residential DU Average of ITE Category 210 Single Family Detached and ITE Category 220 Apartments 8.09 3. High Densis Residential DU ITE Category 220 Apartments 6.65 4. Higher DensityResidential DU ITE Category 220 Apartments 6.65 5.A e Qualified HousingDU ITE Category 252 Senior Adult Housing -Attached 3.44 6. General Office TSF ITE Category 710 General Office Building11.03 7. Medical Office TSF ITE Category 720 Medical -Dental Office Building,36.13 8. General Commercial TSF ITE Cate ory 820 Sho in Center E uafion for 200 iSF 53.28 9. Regional Commercial TSF ITE Cate o 820 Shopping Center Equation for 2000 TSF 23.80 10. Light Industrial TSF ITE Category 110 Light Industnal 6.97 11. Golf Course Acre ITE Category 430 Golf Course 5.04 12. Elementa /Middle School Stu ITE Category 520 ElementarySchool 1,p9 13. Hin Stu ITE Cate ory 530 High School 1.71 14. Cersit Stu ITE Category 540 Junior/Community College 123 15. Pu Acre ITE Cafe o 411 Cii Park1.89 16. Fa Acre OC Fair rounds Special Use 12.30 17. St TSF ITE Cate o 151 Mini -Warehouse 2.50 I8. Cif Hall TSF ITE Cafe o 733 Government Office Com lex 27.92 19. Performance Theater TSF Field Survey 1.23 20. Convalescent Care Be d ITE Cateacry 254 Assisted Living 2.66 21. Hospital Bed ITE Categoa 610 Hospital 12.94 22. Hotel Room ITE Category 310 Hotel Y1 23. Motel Room ITE Category 320 Motel 5.63 24. Auto Dealership TSF ITE CateqoE, 841 New Car Sales 32.30 25. Passive Park Acre ITE Category 411 City Park ADT 1,89 26. A g riculture Acre Assumed to be negligible .00 27. Religious Facility TSF ITE Cate o 560 Church 9.11 28. Vacant Acre Assumed to be ne li ible .00 29. Museum TSF ITE Category 590 Ubrary 5624 30. Home Ranch TSF ITE Category 710 General Office Building adjusted based on the established eak hour fn caps for Home Ranch 1.03 Siantec �, �xwi w��oon,,o� �:.�ae_+^nraeJ�om� mre�i. .Mona i �css,do�R -25- COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS Table 2-1 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Trip Generation Rates (continued) Land Use Category Units Source ADT _TP Rate 31. Sakioka Lot 2 i5F ITE Category 710 General Office Building adjusted based on the established Peak howfnp coos for Sakioka Lott 11.03 32. OCC Master Plan SG Unit Special Generator (SG) rates based on trip generation estimates from the 144.96 August 2015 Orange Coast College OCC Facilities Master Plan Abbreviations: ADT- average daily traffic DU - dwelling unit ITE -Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition TSF- thousand square feet 5 StAntec .,1X7 v-UCr ai'SPI aa9P_ve�rcLJ�orTrC�'o2cails J,a1t3]I Sp9 oc, s2/ _moi COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS Table 2-2 Costa Mesa Citywide Land Use and Trip Generation Summary Land Use Category Units Existing Amount ADT Current General Plan Buildout Amount ADT Proposed General Plan Buildout Amount ADT 1. Low Density Residential DU 14,210 135,290 14,788 140,789 14,791 140,817 2. Medium Density Residential DU 4,370 35,349 4,791 38,758 4,792 38,766 3. High enaly Residential DU 23,593 156.896 28.830 191,720 32,695 217,423 5. Age Qualifed Housinq DU 450 1,548 450 1.548 450 1,548 6. General Office TSF 7,112 78,442 8.830 97.392 10,908 120,312 7. Medical Office TSF 112 4,047 112 4,047 112 4047 8. General Commercial TSF 5,601 298,423 7,249 386,227 7.506 399,920 9. Regional Commercial TSF 4,140 98.531 4,640 110,431 4,640 110,431 10. Light Industrial TSF 13,087 91,217 13.108 91,365 13.078 91,156 11. Golf Course Acre 535 2,696 535 2,696 535 2,696 12. Elementa /Middle School Student 7,385 9,526 8,067 10,406 8,067 10,406 13. High School Student 4.590 7,848 4,998 8,547 4,998 8,547 14. College/University College/University Student 25.990 31,968 26,186 32,209 26,186 32,209 15. Public Facility Acre 176 336 176 336 203 387 16. Fairgrounds Acre 150 1,845 150 1,845 150 1,845 17. Storage TSF 1,171 2,931 877 2,196 877 2196 18. City Hall TSF 133 3,713 133 3,713 133 3,713 19. Performance Theater TSF 585 720 691 850 691 850 20. Convalescent Care Bed 448 1,191 448 1,191 448 1,191 21. Hospital Bed 472 6,108 472 6,108 122 1,579 22. Hotel Room 1,877 15,335 2077, 16,969 2077 16,969 23. Motel Room 2,272 12.793 2,272 12,793 946 5,327 24. Auto DealershipTSF 491 15,860 491 15,860 491 15,860 25. Passive Park Acre 592 1,122 592 1.122 592 1.122 26. A dculture Acre 72 0 27. Religions Facility TSF 555 5,055 555 5.055 555 5,055 28. Vacant Acre 18 0 6 0 6 0 29. Museum TSF - 140 7,874 140 7,874 30. Home Ranch Tri Ca TSF 759 &372 (31 Stantec v"...U1.11 9I d.aFlICl3J ,1, -2-j_ COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS Table 2-2 Costa Mesa Citywide Land Use and Trip Generation Summary (continued) Land Use Category Units Current General Plan Buildout Amount ADT Proposed General Plan Buildout Amount ADT 30. Home Ranch Tri Ca TSF 759 8,372 31. Sakioka Lot 2 Tri Ca TSF titADT 862 9,508 t 862 9,508 32. OCC Master Plan SG 100 14,496 100 14,496 Total Tri Generation 018,790 1,224,423 1,266.250 Total Trip Generation Difference a 205,633 247,460 Total Trip Generation Percent Difference a 20.2% 24.37 (a) Compared to existing trip generation. Abbreviations: ADT -average daily traffic DU -dwelling unit TSF- thousand square feet 41 Stantec \ N73 71 Wt repaTlpl_cngp_V hT a' ialfic]arecas's_dm1r91 W 25,dacry Mti♦2 T TALEERT ¢ 3 ELLIS • �L A j - i MERRIMAC i + FAIR TLANTA , • = _ WILSON � F,p Esq 'sro. VICTORIA HAMILTON I • i—' Legend Tri 3000 - 4500 Fewer Trips 2999 - 2000 Fewer Trips m�•�� ,,f` 1999-1000 Fewer Trips X °o 15TH a x1 _ - i999-500 Fewer Trips 499 -1 Fewer Trips Q�r HOSPITAL °i,�, No Change y. Newp _ ': 1 - 500 Additional Trips 0 s� o Back Bay 500 - 100OAdditional Trips 00o 1000 - 2000 Additional Trips 32No 2000 - 5000 Additional Trips Pacific OCeen - 5000 - 10000 Additional Trips // RA`SIOE 10000+ Additional Trips _.. w Stantec �I. - =- ZG - Stantec COSTA MESA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE VEHICLE TRAFFIC FORECASTS 3.0 Existing and Future Traffic Volumes Existing ADT volumes based on traffic counts collected in 2012 and 2013 for the City's roadway system are illustrated in Figure 3-1. Year 2035 ADT volumes in the City were forecast using the CMTM assuming the existing roadway in the City plus the planned improvements shown in Figure 3-2. Improvements planned on the City's arterial roadway network include adding a fourth northbound lane on Harbor Boulevard south of Sunflower Avenue and a fourth southbound lane on Newport Boulevard between 19th Street and 17th Street. Additional lanes planned on the 1- 405 and SR -55 Freeways as part of the OCTA Measure M2 funding program were also assumed. Year 2035 CMTM ADT volumes based on buildout of the current and proposed Costa Mesa General Plan are illustrated in Figures 3-3 and 3-4, respectively. The differences in ADT volumes between existing conditions and 2035 current General Plan conditions are illustrated in Figure 3-5, and the differences in ADT volumes between 2035 current General Plan conditions and 2035 proposed General Plan conditions are illustrated in Figure 3-6. 4 St ri ec v\2073007190\repmt\rpt_1mgp vehide_1raRic_forecmt, d,.ff201 W925.docx -31- f ELLIS --- 5 7 13 17 SUNFLOWER S RL j _ m ' 11 12 13 Pacific Ocean 5tentec 52- 23 ANTON GARFIELD ! GISLER 11 -16 Q m YORKTOWN ! ! ,..4 .74 -- 19 23 32 36:' - -31 BAKER :-- T4`. �+ 2 ` ...,..=.26 6 ADAMS 3 - a 36� 37 29 MERRIMAC > S ARLINGTON - I 10 ¢ r 1 14 FAIR 21 24 PLANTA1 1 0 12 15 17 WILSON ry M1y ��^`SyA 4 27 - 29 31 VICTORIA 28 ry iAMILTON - _ i 3 8 4 -- a w p --13 22r 32 19TH 9 ! 5 19 11 ty 2 'i`O P9 � 17TH 5 7 8 p.. y hR L -5 CO9S 15TH Pacific Ocean 5tentec 52- /*TN FIg32. �j Stantec um - Std ntec -3� - I 7 S MACARTHUR w 10 19 2' SUNFLOWER ELLS 41 6 16 20 22m — - " 36 ANTON "� GARFIEID - GISLER_ F 2 ! I O X ♦ 11 6 _ _ __ C )p l9 YORKTONM 9 G 76 23 28 38 J1 -89.. BAKER 31 ADAMS t� 47 a 45 - - 44 35 - _ 4 12 ] ARLINGTON 1 18 rAIR rw 27 30 �1 n c ATLANTA I R -8- 14 -- A 20 19 WILSON 15 RIA 32 33 f 3 /ICTO Q 31 - 34 3T 33 Z 77-T >p auy_-- y 15 _2_44 19TH f 4 >J 0 J2 '» 8 _ 11 ^ 131 f 2 17TH 11 13 12 � rs _ 9 ,yA ' h , ➢ ., .-.. 15TH ➢ L� "� +� ALF. Pacific Ocean Sta ntec I 41,1 >BT y g¢ N 'pon o° ay 13�D Z ELLIS • - -- _ '>. SOUTH GARFIElO GISLER -- _ y p - _..___ _. PAULARIND m YORKTOWN - - • - __ _ - BAKER If I - .. ADAMS ARLINGTON MERRIMA141 C : h { P O i FAIR i y WL q x -_--- VICTORIA LTON ypQO • amu` -_ -. �( '`2H,�:�1 s Legend t �p r� ADT Volume e ♦ H ! 1-1000 Fewer Trips i�.�It'-iw No Change 5 ` 1-2000 More Trips 15TH u 95� 0 P hJQ�� HOSPITAL♦ ji#� ♦ "�"S'Q, ®° 2000-3000 More Trips ary 4000-6000 More Trips Newport,,.. Back Bay 6000-8000 More Trips ° X8000-10000 More Trips ]2ND 10000-14000 More Trips acific Ocean BAY -14000-19000 More Trips ® Sta ntec > y �v ELLIS ...... S4NFLOWER SOUTH COAST _ - -- ---_-- ANTON GARFIELD SISI ER 0 __- PAULARINO m VORKTOWN - _. fA BAKER t 0 ADAMS m -- - w �♦ AO m 7 L,�.7..., I _— __.__. -'_� ARLINGTON '• .. __.= MERRIMAC 411. f FAIR 1 46 ATLANTA % <�9�G.D/ Sqi. A VICTORIA Q� HAMILTON; � r i. y - - '`cryo ♦1l.♦ ; N�NE�S\r 4 ,.,.r., 19TH 9Hn Legend > rw ADT Volume • 17TH 1-1000 Fewer Trips al r .. e' No Change U •/� - 1-2000 More Trips ST cific Ocean \,F 2000-3000 More Trips Newport � 4000-6000 More Trips Back Bay � 6000-8000 More Trips 8000-10000 More Trips 10000-14000 More Trips 'AV -14000-19000 More Trips